Producer’s Seeing Negative Variance in Commodity Prices vs. Growing Costs

BY: Skye Root
POSTED: January 20, 2026
IN: General
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Recent USDA data highlights a growing imbalance producers are feeling every day in the field.

By October 2025, the Prices Paid Index climbed to 154.6, while the Prices Received Index fell to 120.5. Put simply:

• It now costs producers ~50% more to grow crops than it did in 2011

• Yet commodity prices are only ~21% higher over that same period

That 34-point spread is the widest gap we’ve seen in at least a decade.

This isn’t about short-term market volatility, it reflects deeper structural pressures: rising input costs, tighter margins, and increasing capital risk for producers and landowners alike.

📉 How are you seeing this margin compression show up in your operation or portfolio?

💬 What questions should the ag industry be asking right now?

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