Commodity Market Outlook

Agriculture Commodity Price Forecast: Late 2024 into 2025

As the end of 2024 approaches, US farmers are focused on planning for 2025, anticipating how commodity prices for major agricultural goods like corn, soybeans, and wheat will fluctuate. Numerous factors, including global demand, input costs, and government policies, will impact the agricultural market. This guide explores the latest price forecasts for agricultural commodities and provides an overview of the key factors influencing the commodity markets in the upcoming marketing year.

Key Factors Driving Commodity Prices in 2025

Understanding the core elements that affect commodity markets will be crucial for US farmers as they plan for the 2025 season. Here are the primary factors:

1. Weather and Climate Conditions Weather continues to be a critical factor impacting crop prices. The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) notes that climate variability, including disruptions like droughts, will cause continued volatility in production. For example, corn prices in 2024 surged as droughts reduced yields, raising concerns about lower prices if growing conditions improve in 2025.
2. Global Demand and Exports Exports of agricultural commodities are expected to remain strong. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates growing demand from countries like Mexico for US corn and soybeans, especially given the geopolitical climate and challenges in Europe. In 2024, wheat prices surged due to ongoing conflicts, and similar patterns may influence the 2025 season-average price for grains and oilseeds.
3. Input Costs and Production Expenses Rising input costs for fuel, fertilizers, and other essentials will also weigh heavily on farm income in 2025. The cost of production has increased due to higher interest rates and energy costs, which is pushing futures prices upward in the commodities market. Farmers are advised to pay close attention to these expenses as they plan their crops for the next marketing year.
4. Government Policies and the Farm Bill Government policies, particularly related to subsidies and trade agreements, will also shape commodity markets in 2025. With discussions around a new Farm Bill, changes could impact everything from soybean prices to wheat prices. Programs from the USDA could influence planting decisions, as risk management tools might offer some protection against price fluctuations.

Commodity Price Forecasts for 2024-2025

Click here for a detailed look at the expected price forecasts for key agricultural commodities heading into 2025: www.farmraise.com/blog/agriculture-commodity-price-forecast-late-2024-into-2025